India's 2010 monsoon rains, crucial for farm output, will be normal, Farm Secretary Prabeer Kumar Basu said on Friday, raising hopes of a strong recovery in farm output that suffered after last year's drought.
"Going by current weather conditions and El Nino phenomena, the monsoons seem to be normal this year," he told reporters, adding that the formal forecast by the weather office was still being prepared and it was premature to predict accurately.
This month, a U.S. government report said the El Nino weather phenomenon, which upsets normal weather patterns, should dissipate by early summer in the northern hemisphere although there was a chance that a weak version would linger.
Last year, the worst monsoon in 37 years ravaged cane and rice fields, making India a large importer of sugar and encouraging the government to consider rice imports.
"If the monsoon will be good this time, we will have a bumper crop and that will help us overcome the loss of the last year's poor rains," said Rajiv Kumar, chief executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations.
"But it is a little early to accurately predict the monsoon," he said.
India's weather office issues a monsoon forecast, usually in the second half of April after considering weather observations in different parts of the world and extrapolating statistical data.
"We are collecting data. For many parameters, data will be collected until March end. Then the collected data will be analysed to give first initial monsoon forecast in April," a spokesman of the weather office said.
Monson rains are vital for India, where only 40 percent of the farms are irrigated and two-thirds of the people depend on agriculture for their livelihood.
Good rainfall boosts output and rural incomes, creating robust demand for automobiles to consumer durables. It also leads to higher demand for gold and boosts market sentiment.
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